Modelado del crecimiento de picaduras en tuberías enterradas que transportan hidrocarburos utilizando técnicas estadísticas

J. C. Velázquez; F. Caleyo; A. Valor; J. M. Hallen

doi:10.3989/revmetalm.1050

Authors

J. C. Velázquez Departamento de Ingeniería Metalúrgica, ESIQIE, IPN, UPALM, EDIF - Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science, Delft University of Technology
F. Caleyo epartamento de Ingeniería Metalúrgica, ESIQIE, IPN, UPALM, EDIF
A. Valor Facultad de Física, Universidad de la Habana
J. M. Hallen Departamento de Ingeniería Metalúrgica, ESIQIE, IPN, UPALM, EDIF

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3989/revmetalm.1050

Keywords:

Pitting corrosion, Nonlinear regression, Monte Carlo simulations, Markov chains

Abstract

New deterministic and stochastic predictive models are proposed for external pitting corrosion in underground pipelines. The deterministic model takes into consideration the local chemical and physical properties of the soil as well as the pipeline coating to predict the time dependence of pitting depth and rate in a range of soils. This model, based on results from a field study, was used to conduct Monte Carlo simulations that established the probability distribution of pitting depth and growth rate in the studied soils and their evolution over the life of the pipeline. In the last stage of the study, an empirical Markov chain-based stochastic model was developed for predicting the evolution of pitting corrosion depth and rate distributions from the observed properties of the soil.

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